|
Who says the US can’t eventually defeat al-Qaeda and put terrorism back in its hole? If you were to check the public mood over the last few years, you would find little confidence of eventual victory, or even temporary respite, especially during the years the Bush group was fanning the flames of fear with repeated upgrading of the terrorist alert board and the issuance of broad warnings about impending attacks. The Bush people did everything but run around shouting, “We all going to die!”, instead of trying to calm the public mood and keep things in perspective.
Now, the head of the CIA paints a view of terrorists in disarray, as reported by the Washington Post:
|
|
|
So profound is al-Qaeda's disarray that one of its lieutenants, in a recently intercepted message, pleaded with bin Laden to come to the group's rescue and provide some leadership, Panetta said. He credited improved coordination with Pakistan's government and what he called "the most aggressive operation that CIA has been involved in in our history," offering a near-acknowledgment of what is officially a secret war.
"Those operations are seriously disrupting al-Qaeda," Panetta said.
|
|
|
It would be a fairly safe assumption that Panetta must be pretty sure of his words, because it is always dangerous ground to talk about a wounded or weakened enemy. What if an attack comes a few days or a few weeks later? Then the words would come marching back, bigger than ever and the speaker could look like a fool. Such comments could also inspire a terrorist to try to prove him wrong, perhaps.
The TerryReport tends to believe this assessment, however. We have been saying from the start that US officials were overstating the capabilities of terrorists and conveniently forgetting some very important points. (They did this for obvious political and funding reasons.) The first factor to always remember is that it is difficult to attack the US from the middle east. 9-11 could as easily be seen as a one shot, lucky strike than the beginning of a long campaign. The 9-11 terrorists, despite their much praised “trade craft”, were almost caught on several occasions, including the very day of the hijackings when the lead pair almost missed their connecting flight to Boston and also got into an argument in the parking lot at the airport.
In addition to careful assessment of the available intelligence, it should always be remembered what al-Qaeda is: a loosely connected group of fanatics who feed on their own propaganda and mistaken notions about the United States. Bush and his troops blew up al-Qaeda into being something like the late, dreaded Soviet Union, an absolutely determined and vastly powerful enemy who could not be changed nor deterred. My own belief is that their great “success” of 9-11 would come back to haunt them in many different ways. While it was an incredible propaganda coup, showing that the mighty US was vulnerable to attack, it brought down hell fire on al-Qaeda and anyone associated with them. Some victory.
When the enemy is an opposing country, instead of people hiding out like bandits, there are many ways to improve on it’s plans and actions. Entire university programs can be dedicated to developing a complete portrait of the opposing country. The elaborate chain of command in an established nation, what’s more, can serve to correct half baked mistakes that make it into strategy. al-Qaeda has none of these sophisticated systems for developing it’s plans.
There are many ways to lose a war and one of them is to win a lot of big battles that wind up costing you more than your enemy. The whole strategy and tactics of al-Qaeda were flawed and based on incorrect assumptions. Had they planned 9-11 to be in any way commensurate with America’s power, they would have either, 1. gotten themselves caught in the process and no attack would have gone forward or, 2. brought the US to its knees. They missed that opportunity by staging an attack that was more for show, more for international television, than it was for actual effect. Too bad, guys.
Now, they are like running dogs in front of our 18 wheel trucks or, more correctly, under the view scope of our Predator drones. This does not mean we will never have another successful terrorist attack on American soil. It does mean that, over time, they should continue to be weakened, bit by bit and, at some point, are likely to decide they need a better, easier target than the once sleeping giant across the Atlantic.
Doug Terry, 3.17.10
|
|
