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The situation in Egypt is spinning out of control and might, in a short period, go toward one that cannot be brought back to any kind of order for a long time. Instead of a revolution, we could be watching the disintegration of a nation. It is reported that prisoners are being freed throughout Egypt, putting thousands of new “players” on the streets, likely adding to looting, robberies and other kinds of violence unrelated to the political situation. The army is in the streets, but siding with the protesters in most areas of the country. Looting is widespread as the poor try to take what they can’t earn.
Mubarak appears all but powerless to do anything or, to put it another way, to do anything that might result in something good. His thug force of private “police” have been withdrawn from the streets and are trying to protect what is left of the buildings where Mubarak’s power is staged. They can’t be put back out, because that would likely mean bloody battles between the protesters and the thugs, with the army likely joining the protesters. In other words, the thug force would probably be slaughtered en mass.
If the situation goes on more than a few more days, outside forces in the middle east, other nations, are likely to try to step in (if they, such as Iran, are not there already playing a behind the scenes role). There is no free ride in life and this is especially true in the middle-east. Almost everything, top to bottom, is frequently in play in that region. Few are willing to wait on the sidelines for what they might grab for themselves.
It is not too much to imagine, even now, that American troops, flying a UN banner. might be asked to go in, if Mubarak agrees to flee the country. How else could order be restored with the army on the side of the protesters, the police vastly out numbered and the thug force called inside?
The Obama administration is caught in a difficult, rather ugly situation. They want stability in the middle-east more than they want to take the risks of change. They are trying to stay with Mubarak and, slyly, let him go, too. Yet, they, and we, are faced with a popular uprising demanding change, democracy and opportunity in a nation where over half the population is extremely poor.
Let’s hope Hillary Clinton and company are working over time this weekend and not waiting for a three AM phone call, In this case, the call needs to go in the other direction, to Mubarak. He has lost control of his country and it is not likely, at all, that he can get it back. Staying longer, now, simply adds to the risk of ultimate chaos that cannot be called back. This is a time for courage, skill and some wisdom. Waiting could add, rather dramatically, to the problems ahead, but so far no one in power in Washington, DC, has signaled any intention of changing their position.
Doug Terry, 10:45 AM, 1.30.11
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