These are difficult times in regard to Egypt for the American government. Obviously, they want stability more than they would like to see democracy. And, they don’t want Israel to go up in flames if some new players came into power in Egypt and decided to attack. Yet, there are other dangers, closer and more likely.

With the plan for massive protests in Cairo and elsewhere on Tuesday, the risk is that the army will be called on the suppress the popular uprising by any means available. Hundreds could be killed, including many women and children as whole families join in the protests. The temptation to just start shooting in these situations is  strong. Further, one errant shot set off by a nervous solider or commander could start a mass firing without any reason other than fear on the part of the army.

It is very important now that the American government express its concern to Mubarak that nothing of the sort take place. We don’t know what Clinton is saying behind closed doors, but is it safe to assume they see the danger and are warning Mubarak away from it? No, not necessarily. The Obama administration has been trying to play both sides of the street over the last week, edging toward the realization that Mubarak must go while in their hearts they appear to be hoping he can stay. 

Obama and company might be hoping that some sort of deal can be brokered for him to stay until elections are to be held next September, but the crowds in Cario would see that as a betrayal and yet another delay of what they consider to be long delayed justice. They want Mubarak out by the end of this week at the latest.

Right now, there is a great danger that Tuesday’s massive protests could go very badly. Something on one side has to give. Business is being brought to a halt, food shortages are starting to appear, international businesses, like Coke, are shutting down their operations and foreign residents and tourists are fleeing by any means available. This is the crucial week for the future of Egypt, and perhaps for the middle east for years to come, and I am hoping that it does devolve into complete chaos and mass murder in the streets. The risk factors go up with every passing day.

Doug Terry, 1.31.11

From the NY TIMES, with a note below

CAIRO The Egyptian Army announced Monday for the first time that it would not fire on protesters, even as tens of thousands of people gathered in central Liberation Square for a seventh day to shout for the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak.

The announcement came after the opposition dismissed Mr. Mubarak’s cabinet reshuffle as inadequate and as concerns over violence were heightened by the presence of security police officers clustered near the square’s entrances, their first deployment there in three days.

This announcement could be part of an effort by the Egyptian Army to make certain it is not used in a mass killing effort to suppress the protests. By making it publicly, it could cut off the option of military commanders, under  Mubarak, to use in an effort to put an end to the protests once and for all. The announcement also reflects the reality that the army will have to live in the              post-Mubarak, Egyptian world.

Doug Terry