PHOTOS, PAGE 1

       Editor and prime reporter is Doug Terry, a veteran television and radio reporter in   Washington, DC, (details below)

HOW REVOLUTIONS ARE WON, EGYPT ON THE BRINK

There is every reason to believe tonight that Egypt’s government is going to fall, soon, in the face of massive street protests. Hosni Mubarak should have his bags packed and his jet fueled and waiting. I am sure there are many countries where he can go, but his time in Egypt seems to be a matter of days, weeks at most.

There is a crucial turning point in revolutions and it looks like Egypt has passed several markers. First, by turning to repressive measures, including shooting people down in the street, it has guaranteed that the movement will only get bigger. Second, cutting off Internet and cell access, as it did Friday, shows that it can only win by becoming like Iran or other such places where the people have almost no say in anything that goes on. Third, and most importantly, some of the police have started to give up.

This last factor, turning police and military from enemies to helpers, is the most important. In most countries, there is a great reluctance on the part of the army and police to kill their fellow countrymen. Indeed, it sometimes becomes an actual case of brother fighting brother. If the forces of repression can be turned, then there is nothing left for the government to do but decide how it will give up, by running or staying and being killed.

Here’s a cut from the NY Times, Friday (1.28.11) afternoon:

                   “...in a sign of flagging resolve during the day, police began to retreat and then stopped fighting entirely, even beginning to shake hands with protesters once they had given up.

 Riot police and kheffiyeh-wearing youngsters smiled and shared water bottles as piles of tires still burned. The chairs and bottles stopped raining down from apartment building balconies. Thousands stood on the six-lane coastal road, the gentle green waves of the Mediterranean at their backs, as they got on their knees and prayed. “

The United States is one of the few countries in the world where the police and army can be counted on to kill our own citizens if called to do so. I don’t know why this is true, but it is. Even in harshly repressive states like China, Iraq and Iran, the army has a breaking or stopping point.

There is an old slogan from revolutions around the world which goes, “The people is the army, the army is the people”. Like all great slogans, it means various things to different people. Part of what it means to me is that, at some point, the army will join the people in revolution. It appears we have reached that point right now in Egypt.

Doug Terry, 1.28.11

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